We are on track for a light to moderate snowfall across the area. Snow will begin over night and continue through the morning. There is still some uncertainty in regards to snowfall totals, but for now I’m leaning towards the lower end of my below forecast. The low appears to be tracking slightly further east than earlier modeled, which would reduce snowfall totals for our area. Additionally, short-range high-resolution modeling has not been enthusiastic with snowfall totals. The biggest impact from this storm will be the snow occurring during the morning commute, especially for Long Island drivers. At minimum by the time you get up in the morning all surfaces will be coated so certainly allow extra time for your morning commute.
Here we go again, another snowstorm for our area is on its way. As with the last storm, this one is proving difficult to forecast. This is due to the nature of the storm and the interaction between areas of energy coming up from the Southwest, diving down from Canada and a piece of energy over the Colorado area. How all of these various pieces interact will mean significant differences in the impacts to our region.
As of now, it looks like snow will overspread the area late Monday evening. and continue potentially past sunrise on Tuesday. However, there is great uncertainty in regards to the actual track of the coastal low that will bring snows to the area. Some models such as the RGEM and NAM take the low further west and closer to our area which means higher snowfall totals. While the UKIE and EURO are further out to sea and only bring light snow across the area. Right now my best guess is 0-3″ for Manhattan into Queens, 2-5″ for Nassau County, and 4-8″ for Suffolk. The general trend is the further east you go the greater the snowfall totals. Another factor in these totals will be the air temperatures, which will remain at our above freezing throughout most of the event. This likely will limit totals for some areas depending on snowfall rates. More to come later…
As I’ve been alluding to a slight shift East could make a significant difference in snowfall totals. Well, it happened and it looks like the storm will track slightly East of earlier modeling. What this means is increased totals for all. Suffolk and possibly parts of Nassau will see a mixture during the day, but Queens West will stay all snow.
The next round of precipitation will begin to overspread the area between now and noon. By 2-3PM the whole region will be in heavy snow bands with rates of 2-3″ per hour. The snow will end late tonight into early tomorrow from West to b East. Additionally, don’t be surprised to hear some thunder if you end up in bed one of the heavy bands.
Just a quick update: So far both the NAM and the RGEM have come in slightly south and east of their previous runs, additionally, the HRRR at the end of it’s run is leaning towards the further south and east models. What this means for us is that the mid to higher range of the totals may be more likely. Right now the rain/snow battle ground may set up somewhere around the Southern State or Hempstead Turnpike in Nassau and Queens, while most of Suffolk will likely change to all rain for some time. As of right now I expect all of Suffolk and parts of Nassau to rain and/or sleet for parts of tomorrow morning before flipping to snow by the early afternoon. Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens may stay more snow or only mix slightly. If you’re North of the Southern state in Nassau and Queens, I’d expect 4-8″ with the chance for more, South of these roads expect 2-5″. Western Suffolk 3-6″ and Eastern Suffolk 0-3″. Brooklyn and Manhattan you may approach a foot depending on banding.
For this event, expect the worst but hope for the best. A 25-30 mile shift in the storm track will make a significant difference in snowfall totals.
A special shout out to NeuLion. Apologies that I couldn’t be more specific earlier.
This forecast is proving to be extremely difficult, and I’m happy that I do this as a hobby and am not the National Weather Service this evening. There is still a significant amount of disagreement on the models. The range for Long Island is anywhere from 0″ to 14″+. At this point, I am leaning towards the solutions that show a mix of snow and rain for our area, with snow starting before day break, changing to rain for a period, and ending as snow late tomorrow afternoon/evening. In terms of accumulation, the further west on Long Island towards NYC you go the greater accumulations you will see. I most likely will have to update my forecast late tonight, as the hurricane hunters are flying into the developing system this evening and we will start to get a better idea of where the low is forming and will track.
Accumulations/Impacts:
No matter the accumulations, this storm will be impactful especially for the afternoon commute, since this is when it is most likely we will change back to snow if any areas change to rain. This changeover will feature extremely heavy snowfall rates.
Nassau and Queens: 3-6″ with a potential for more if the changeover does not happen. This will be a heavy/wet accumulation due to the rain and air temperatures
Western Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan: 4-8″ but will be similar to Long Island with it being a wet snow depending on where the Rain/Snow line is.
Eastern Suffolk: 0-4″ of messy slop
Sorry I’m late on this, but work has been keeping me busy:
I really thought that I had made my last post about a snowstorm for the season, but unfortunately it’s looking like I was wrong. As of this afternoon, models are starting to come to some consensus in terms of total snowfall. However, the forecast is not locked in yet. At this point the region is looking at anywhere from 3-12″+ of snow by the end of the storm on Wednesday night. There are a few things that make this forecast particularly difficult: Temperatures throughout the storm will remain at or just above freezing, the start time of the storm will heavily impact totals since daytime snow in March tends to compact quicker due to the warmer/higher sun angle, and finally how quickly/when does any potential rain/sleet change over to snow.
The snow will begin sometime just before sunrise on Wednesday and continue throughout the day, models are showing signs of some very heavy snow bands during the day. However, we may not know where that banding will set up until tomorrow evening. Areas that get into this banding will see snow rates for 2-3″ per hour. The snow will begin to wind down by Wednesday evening. Overall, this will be an impactful event for our region on Wednesday and cause a nightmare of an afternoon commute.
For now my thoughts are as follows for snow totals:
Nassau and Queens: 4-8″ with a potential for a foot
Western Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan: 5-10″, but it may not look like it due to the factors mentioned above plus the Urban Heat Island effect
Western Suffolk: 3-6″
Eastern Suffolk: 2-5″
And finally for those who enjoy snow maps here is some eye-candy for you. Just keep in mind that these don’t take into account any melting or compaction that will take place during the storm:
