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And We’re Back- Early Season Storm to Impact Region on Thursday 11/15/18

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I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I have to open up shop early for the 2018-2019 Winter Season. As of this afternoon, it looks likely that our region will be impacted by a minor winter weather event on Thursday afternoon. Currently, it appears that snow will overspread the region starting mid-day on Thursday and continue into the early evening hours, with snow changing to rain from East to West. 

In terms of totals, as of now I am forecasting a dusting to 2″ area wide, with more to the west and less to the east. It is possible that areas of NYC may see closer to 4″ depending on timing and when the changeover to rain occurs. I would expect more accumulation on grass and cars then on roadways as temperatures throughout will be just below freezing.

More updates to come…

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3/20/-3/22/2018 Storm Update

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As I mentioned earlier today, we will be experiencing a significant winter storm over the next day and a half. Right now many may be experiencing sleet and other mixed precipitation. This will taper off tonight, and lead to a lull until around sunrise. Snow will pick up in intensity during the morning and continue as heavy snow into tomorrow evening. The models are showing the storm ending anywhere between 1- 7am on Thursday. To start, the snow will be the heavy wet snow that we saw during the last storm, but as the day goes on it will become lighter and more powdery as the upper atmosphere cools. By the end of the storm, you can expect anywhere from 8-14″ of snow, with some areas actually falling in the 12-16″ range depending on where the banding sets up during the day tomorrow.

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3/20-3/22/2018 Snowstorm Update

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As promised, I am back with a more detailed forecast and discussion:

As of this evening, models are showing a moderate winter storm impacting our area starting late tomorrow night. This represents a significant change from last night when I was strongly leaning towards no storm. These changes are driven by the changing interaction of several pieces of energy out west and in Canada. All of which has led to a more impactful storm for our region.

Depending on the model, precipitation will overspread the region between 5 and 9PM tomorrow evening. This first round of precipitation will be in the form of light rain, sleet, and some snow. This first round of mixed precipitation will continue overnight and may lead to accumulation of sleet overnight (worst scenario is 1-2″ of sleet). Precipitation will then let up before sunrise and re-intensify later in the morning as all snow. By the time the storm ends on Wednesday evening, total snowfall will generally be in the 4-8″ range, with slightly more on the South Shore.

The below snow maps illustrate the variability in expected snowfall for this event. It’s likely that we won’t know exactly when the changeover and heavier snow will be until tomorrow afternoon:

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3/20-3/22/2018 Snow Storm

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So it looks like my leaning against a storm from last night was wrong. Models today have made a significant jump towards a colder and snowier solution. The key to all this is a piece of energy over Maine that is now modeled to move further north than originally thought. This allows the series of low-pressure systems that will be tracking south of our region to track further north. For our area, this means a much snowier and wetter solution. I will provide an in-depth breakdown later tonight, but in summary, it looks like we should now expect a region-wide 4-8″ snowfall. This will feature rain and sleet to start late tomorrow night, a lull, and then more precipitation likely in the form of all snow on Wednesday…Much more to come later tonight.

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3/20-3/22/2018 Weather Event

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Many of you have probably heard about the chance for a storm sometime between Tuesday and Thursday this week. While the time period does need close monitoring, I do not believe as of this evening that we will be in the bullseye of the storm. Therefore, I will not be providing a detailed forecast tonight.  I will keep you updated, and share updates as needed, especially if it starts to look like we will be impacted by the storm.