Category: Uncategorized

Summary: Tropical Storm Hermine is forecast make landfall in Florida and then track up the coast over the next few days. There is a possibility that Hermine will have a significant impact on our region with strong winds and heavy rain beginning late Saturday night.

Details:

Many of you may have already heard, but there is a Tropical Storm in the Gulf of Mexico named Hermine. Hermine is forecast to become a weak Category 1 hurricane before making landfall somewhere along the Northwest Coast of Florida.

Once Hermine makes landfall, models are coming in to agreement that the storm will come up the East Coast. There is some disagreement still where Hermine will track up the coast. BUT many models  are starting to show (GFS, GGEM, GEFS, EURO) Hermine tracking up the coast close to our area. The specifics are not anywhere close being nailed down. At this point, I’d strongly advise everyone to keep an eye out and I’ll be starting to provide updates on Hermine.

If the models that bring Hermine close to the coast are to be believed, we will start feeling the effects of Hermine late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. From there, our region could experience heavy rains of 2-3″ or more and winds in excess of 40 or 50mph. I will caution though that this is subject to significant change. We won’t likely know for sure what to expect with any confidence until late Friday or Saturday morning the earliest.

GFS of what Hermine could potentially bring to the region (Subject to significant change):

Goldberg Weather is back from Summer hiatus! I promised that I would post when something interesting was happening weather wise, and there is finally something worth posting. Starting with today, the first true heatwave of the summer will impact our area. Temperatures today ranged from the low to mid-90’s throughout the area. The next few days will continue to feature the same heat. As a matter of fact, the heat may not break over the next week with highs in the 90’s continuing through at least Thursday. In addition to the heat, we will continue to see below normal precipitation. Outside of a passing thunderstorm no significant rainfall is expected over the next few days. Which is not good for our area since we are already experiencing a moderate drought.

Summary: The next few days will be hot, with temperatures in the 90’s and little to no rain exacerbating the drought conditions.

Drought Index:

As many of you have pointed out, it has been awhile since my last post. I haven’t posted, simply because there hasn’t been anything interesting weather wise going on. While some may say the last week and a half was interesting, I’d argue no, it was pretty terrible. Moving forward through the Spring and Summer, I will continue to be limited in posting unless something interesting is coming, be it a strong Thunderstorm or something more (Hurricane!?!?).

Looking forward, the weather finally seems to have turned a corner, with the Omega blocking gone and a more normal spring pattern returning. As of now the models show temperatures in the 60’s to the lower 70’s for the remainder of the week. The only downer in the long term forecast comes on Sunday, where temperatures may not get out of the 50’s. But this is a long way off and if you were to have looked at this week a few days ago you would’ve thought it would still be miserable weather.

I hope that everyone enjoys the week ahead and the Spring weather that is upon us.

The storm continues to be on track to impact our region starting late this afternoon. Snow will start out light and possibly not accumulate, overnight it will increase in intensity and that’s when it is expected that we will see the most accumulations. The snow should exit our area by early Monday morning.

In terms of totals there is still high variability on the models, but overall these look like reasonable calls:

Nassau- 3-6
Suffolk- 4-8 (Possibly more closer to the east end)
NYC- 2-4 (Less in Manhattan more in Queens. The heat island of Manhattan may prevent much accumulation at all on the streets)

Unfortunately the 18Z models just came in, and they moved towards slightly more snow than the last update. They have moved back into the 3-6 and possibly slightly more range. This goes with the theme that I discussed earlier of the models varying widely in their depictions of the system. More updates to come later tonight or early tomorrow morning.

GFS:

RGEM:

A winter weather advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service for tomorrow’s storm. There is still some variation between models in total snowfall, but the NWS call of 2-4 seems reasonable at this time. More updates later.

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon Sunday to 6 am EDT
Monday... 

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for snow... which is in effect from noon Sunday to 6 am
EDT Monday.

* Locations... Nassau... western Suffolk... and Middlesex counties. 

* Hazard types... snow.

* Snow accumulations... 2 to 4 inches.

* Timing... a mix of light rain and snow develops early Sunday
  afternoon... then changes to snow late in the afternoon. Snow
  will continue through Sunday night... tapering off by Monday
  morning. 

* Impacts... visibilities will be reduced in spots due to blowing
  snow. Travel will remain difficult due to accumulating snow.

* Winds... northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Temperatures... in the lower 30s.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.