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Models are beginning to hint at a potential snow event for early Friday morning. This event could have a significant impact on the Friday morning commute. As of now we can expect anywhere from 1-6 inches of snow, an unusually wide range for a prediction.

The reason for this wide range is the variability on the models. The Hi-Res short range models are beginning to show snow amounts over 4 inches. While the global models are sticking to less than 3 inches at most. We will have to continue to monitor this potential event and hopefully by tomorrow afternoon, we’ll have a better idea of the true impact.

Oh and also the global models have a fairly significant storm just off the coast on Sunday. Some bring some snow into the area, but there’s great uncertainty regarding this storm as of now.

Updates to come on both events…

Below are some of the model storm totals as of this afternoon:

Just a quick update: Models continue to show snow for our area starting late tonight/early tomorrow morning. By the time the snow changes to rain, we can expect anywhere from a coating to 2″ of snow. There will be less on the South Shore and more as you head North. The changeover should occur Saturday morning, sometime after 8 or 9am.

Saturday and Sunday will feature warmer temperatures but will still be rainy. Another front will come through on Sunday and behind it will be another blast of Arctic air. More updates later today/tonight.

Winter Weather Advisory Text:

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to
10 am EST Saturday... 

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for snow and ice... which is in effect from midnight
tonight to 10 am EST Saturday.

* Locations... New York City and Long Island.

* Hazard types... snow and freezing rain.

* Snow accumulations... 1 to 2 inches.

* Ice accumulations... around a trace.

* Timing... snow tonight changing to freezing rain early Saturday
  morning.

* Impacts... hazardous driving conditions on all untreated
  surfaces.

* Temperatures... in the lower 30s.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.

Summary:

The next few days will feature the coldest weather we have seen so far, with daytime highs on Thursday and Friday in the low to mid-20’s. The cold weather will be capped off by snow Friday night into Saturday. As of now our region can expect a coating to 2″, with more possible on the North Shore.

Forecast:

Overnight tonight a cold front will pass through our area with some light snow/rain. Following the cold front passage, temperatures will begin to drop. Temperatures will continue to drop through the day on Thursday, and bottom out overnight Thursday into Friday with low’s in the lower teens. Friday will continue to feature weather in the 20’s.

This brings us to the storm late Friday into Saturday. Snow will begin in our area late Friday night or early Saturday morning. The snow will then mix with rain and eventually change to all rain on Saturday morning. There is some model disagreement over when the changeover will occur, the timing of which will have an impact on the total snowfall.

As of now my forecast is a coating to 2″ for most of Long Island, depending on when the changeover occurs some areas on the North Shore may see 3 or 4″.

Below are forecasted snow amounts from the latest model runs. Note that the EURO is not included which is in the 1-2″ camp for our region.

A quick update on the possible snow for Sunday into Monday: As of now models are showing that we will see a few hours of snowfall before changing to rain early Monday morning. Total snowfall will likely be less than an inch, depending on the track of the storm, it is very possible that we do not see anything more than a coating in most areas of the Island. Overall this system should have a low impact in terms of winter weather.

Looking ahead, models are continuing to show the weather turning colder next week. With possible daytime highs in the 20’s. More details on the arctic blast to come in the next few days.