Category: Uncategorized

Breaking News: The National Weather Service has just issued a Blizzard Watch for our area!

It continues to look like our region will be impacted by a significant winter storm starting early Tuesday. There is still SIGNIFICANT uncertainty in regards to the track of the storm. This afternoon’s Euro run came in further east than where it has been the last few days, and this has significant impacts on snow totals. However, other model guidance continues to be west. As of now, the key takeaway is that we can expect a significant snow storm on Tuesday and possibly into early Wednesday. The minimum snow totals to be expected are in the 8-12″ range, with far higher a strong possibility. Based on the disagreement amongst guidance, it is possible we may not know the true totals to expect until early on Monday.

I will continue to post updates as more information comes out. The hope is that as we get the meso models into range they will help to resolve the questions of where the heaviest snow will occur and what totals we can expect.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
338 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...Potential for a Major Winter Storm Monday night into
Wednesday...

CTZ007>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-120900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
338 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Watch, which is in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening.

* Locations...New York City, Long Island, Southern Westchester,
  Southern Fairfield, Southern New Haven, Middlesex, and New
  London counties.

* Hazard Types...Snow, and strong and gusty winds.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel and potential for power outages due
  to moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds.

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

Today’s model runs continue the trend of a significant winter storm impacting our region on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. The storm will begin forming in the deep South late Sunday and Monday and then make its way into our region. While I am not yet ready to get into specific snow totals, this storm has the potential to be as impactful as some of the most famous storms to impact our region (1996,1978,1888, etc.).  For now, we are in wait and see mode, but at this time it is almost certain that we will be impacted by a strong winter storm.

The other event of note is the unseasonable cold that can be expected over the next several days. Daytime high temperatures may not make it above freezing for several days at least. In addition, nighttime lows will be in the teens.

Certainly a wild few days of winter weather to come.

Tonight is the first in what is likely to be many updates on a possible snowstorm for next Tuesday. However, before I discuss that that storm further, let me briefly touch on the light snow for tomorrow. Snow will begin overnight before sunrise and continue through mid-day, tapering off by 1PM at the latest. Total snowfall will be in the 3-5″ range with more accumulation on grassy surfaces than on roadways. Temperatures will be above freezing prior to the start of the snow limiting accumulation on paved surfaces. Additionally, the further east you are the higher totals you can expect. After the snow ends, temperatures will remain below freezing through the weekend.

Then comes Monday night into Tuesday. As of this afternoon’s model runs, all the major models: UKIE, EURO, GFS, JMA, CMC, etc, are in agreement that a significant storm will form off the East Coast late Monday or early Tuesday. In the weather world this is still a lifetime away, but it is becoming clear that a storm will likely bring snows to our area on Tuesday. The big question is how much? At this time that is hard to say, models have been showing anywhere from 6-10″ to a 2ft+ snow storm. We likely will not know how much until Sunday at the earliest. But the key takeaway at this time is that the potential exists for a major snowstorm in our area beginning late Monday or Tuesday. More updates to come…

The snowstorm that we have been tracking is well underway throughout the area. Snow will continue to fall throughout the region until this afternoon. The storm will slowly begin to wind down from west to east throughout the afternoon. We continue to be on track for a 10-15″ snowfall throughout the area, with some areas on Long Island exceeding the 15″. Over the next few hours everyone can expect whiteout conditions, and possibly thunder snow. As a matter of fact there was thunder observed in Suffolk a few minutes ago.

Enjoy the storm and stay safe!

As of this afternoons model suite, we remain on track for a major snowstorm beginning tomorrow before sunrise. Snow will begin sometime after 2-3am and pick up in intensity by sunrise. Most areas can expect at least 10-15 inches of snow. However, there will be some areas that recieve over 18″ if they get into the heavier banding. The snow should begin to taper off by mid to late afternoon leaving behind very cold air. Temperatures on Friday may not get out of the teens.

I will update later tonight as the Hi-Res short range models continue to come into range. This is a storm that could easily outperform current forecasts due to the dynamics involved.

Edit: Special note per my family request: The city (Manhattan) can expect to see about a foot as well. The interesting piece to this event is this is likely to stick even on the avenues of Manhattan due to the rate at which the snow will be falling.

Below are the RGEM and NAM models, both of which have continued to increase snowfall totals over our area today.

I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news (Thanks Berg), it looks like the storm is going to exceed my previous forecast. The models are continuing to increase snowfall totals throughout our region. The key to this is a stronger storm forming off the coast tomorrow morning. Based on latest guidance, I am upping my snowfall forecast for our region to 10-15″ with a possibility of more (18 inches+) depending on where the banding sets up. Many have asked for localized forecasts, in the case of this storm the distribution throughout the region should be fairly even within the forecasted range. Except for those areas that end up under heavy banding, which is always very difficult if not impossible to predict. In addition to the snow amounts, the rate at which the snow will fall will be impressive as well, with rates up to three inches an hour. Whiteout conditions will be likely from mid-morning into the afternoon.

Timing: Snow will begin by 3-4am and pickup in intensity by daybreak. Snow will continue throughout the day and begin to taper off by about 3-4pm in the afternoon.

Temperatures will begin dropping late tonight and by tomorrow temperatures will drop into the uppers teens to low 20’s. Friday will remain cold as well. Therefore, do not expect the snow to go anywhere.