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As of this afternoon, there’s still no clear consensus across the models regarding the snowstorm potential from Wednesday evening into Thursday. At a minimum, we’re expecting a light to moderate snow event across the region. However, there’s significant variability in the model projections for how the storm will evolve.

Until this afternoon, the European model (Euro) had been forecasting an all-out blizzard. But the latest Euro run shifted significantly southward, deviating from previous predictions.

On the other hand, the American model (GFS) has trended toward a stronger storm, suggesting a more impactful event for our area. The UKMET and ICON models are also showing a stronger storm scenario.

Given the complexity of the setup, it’s likely we won’t have clearer guidance until at least tomorrow night, if not Monday. The atmosphere is in a delicate balance, and this could lead to a range of potential outcomes, from light snow to more significant impacts.

Stay tuned as we continue to monitor this evolving storm.

I come to you this afternoon with some bad news:

It looks like our luck of no major storms may have run out. As of this afternoon almost all of the major models are predicting a major winter storm to impact our region starting Wednesday evening. If the models end up being correct, we could be looking at a storm dropping well over a foot of snow across the area.

I will caution that we have a LONG way to go until we know that this storm is coming for sure. It is always possible that the storm does not materialize, but as of now this storm looks to be a legitimate threat that requires close monitoring.

After a long hiatus, we’re back with our first winter update. While we’ve already seen some snow this season, tomorrow marks the first widespread accumulating snowfall that will likely require shoveling. As is often the case, the weather models are still not in full agreement on tomorrow’s snowfall. Some show a mix of rain and snow for Long Island, while others predict all snow across the region. As of now, I’m leaning toward an accumulating snowfall from Western Suffolk County through NYC, with Eastern Suffolk likely experiencing mixed precipitation or all rain.

Precipitation is expected to begin tomorrow afternoon, between 2 and 4 PM, moving from west to east. Long Island may start with a wintry mix that transitions to snow, while the City and areas to the north and west will remain all snow. The precipitation will persist throughout the afternoon and into the evening.

By the time the event ends, areas north and west of NYC could see 6+ inches of snow, while NYC and Nassau County should expect 2-4 inches. Western Suffolk may receive 1-3 inches, and Eastern Suffolk will likely see less than an inch, or possibly no accumulation at all.

I plan to post an update later today or tomorrow with some snow maps. 

I have been slow to post anything related to the storm coming on Tuesday. The primary reason for this is that I truly have no idea what to expect on Tuesday. As of this afternoon’s model runs, we should expect anywhere from a wet inch or two to 6–10 inches of snowfall. Everything is coming down to a 25 or so mile difference in storm track as well as models varying by 2–5 degrees on the projected temperature. Any swing warmer/north means almost now snow, and a slight bump south/colder means a significant snowfall. We likely will not know for sure until sometime tonight or tomorrow what to expect on Tuesday.

Overall, you can expect rain to overspread the area Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Depending on the model and forecast temperatures, the rain will change over to snow sometime around sunrise. Depending on the surface temperatures, the snow may begin to accumulate fairly quickly. The snow should begin to end by mid-to-late afternoon on Tuesday.

I plan to post an update tomorrow with a specific snowfall prediction. For now, expect at least an inch or two of snow, with a 50–60% possibility for 5+.”

Tomorrow’s snow event is looking to be very minor. Snow will begin falling lightly tomorrow morning around sunrise and continue into the afternoon and early evening. I am not expecting it to fall heavily at all during the day as there is limited forcing and upper air energy to cause significant snowfall rates.

By tomorrow evening, the City and Nassau County should expect anywhere from a coating to two inches. Suffolk will likely be a dusting to an inch at most.

Overall, this event will be relatively low impact outside of the inconvenience of some snow covered roads and walkways.