Author: Alex G

I wanted to put out a quick update this morning since there has been a slight shift in modeling. Models last night and this morning are indicating that the low will track slightly further north than originally projected. This will lead to some potential mixing of snow and sleet on Long Island. Therefore I am lowering my total forecast to 6-12 for Long Island with even less in Central Suffolk and East from there. NYC and areas north and west are unlikely to see the mixing issues and continue on track for over a foot of snow accumulations. Some areas may see as much as 18”.

I will post an update later today or this evening based on the latest guidance.

It continues to look likely that we will be impacted by a significant snowstorm Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. The weather models while divergent in totals, generally agree that a significant storm will impact our area. The only question that exists as of this evening is in regards to the exact track of the low. A few models on their runs this afternoon trended slightly North which brought more mixed precipitation to Long Island while leaving the city and areas North and West of the city in heavy snow bands. We will have to wait until either tomorrow evening or Tuesday to make a better determination in regards to these slight shifts in track.

With that being said light snow should start Wednesday afternoon and pick-up in intensity through the evening. The snow will be heavy overnight, with a chance for thundersnow, as the low pressure system will be intensifying rapidly south of Long Island. Blizzard conditions will also likely occur overnight, and I would not be surprised to see Blizzard Warning’s issued for parts of our region. The snow will begin to wind down around sunrise on Thursday morning.

My initial snow total forecast is as follows and is likely to be revised as we get closer in:

NYC and Long Island: 8-14″
Areas North and West of NYC 14-20″

As of this afternoon, the models continue to be in agreement in regards to a major snowstorm impacting our region beginning on Wednesday afternoon continuing overnight into Thursday. Currently all of the major models are projecting that our region will see 12″+ of snow. While, I am not yet ready to pull the trigger and say that is what we should expect, everything is certainly trending that way. For now we will have to continue to watch the evolution of the storm, and wait for the short-range models to come in to range beginning on Sunday and Monday. 

In addition to the major storm that we are tracking, there is a chance for some light snow on Monday afternoon. However, the setup for Monday is a rain to light snow scenario where we do not often see significant accumulations. 

Don’t look now but it looks like we may experience our first winter storm of the season next Wednesday in to Thursday. This is still in the extended range, but multiple models are in alignment showing at least a moderate snow storm impacting our area beginning on Wednesday afternoon.

It is far too early to get in to any specifics, but at this time it looks likely that we will see our first winter weather of the season. I’ll post more updates over the next few days.