Author: Alex G

Summary:
Tuesday: Clear in the morning, with conditions deteriorating during the day. Rain expected in the afternoon and evening, there is a chance that at the onset we could see some light snow before a quick changeover to rain. No accumulations are expected. Temperatures in the upper 30’s/low 40’s.
Wednesday: Rain throughout the day. Temperatures steadily rising into the 50’s throughout the day into the evening.
Thursday: Rain in the morning, clearing by the afternoon. Temperatures expected to be in the upper 40’s, possibly low 50’s.
Friday: Clear throughout the day. Temperatures in the 30’s/40’s. Likely dropping throughout the day.

Forecast Discussion:

I am happy to report that all threats of snow are gone from the near term forecast. The NAM and CMC have now come into agreement with the other models regarding tomorrow and the days ahead. The weather will generally be unsettled until Thursday afternoon, but temperatures will be above average for this time of the year. Looking past Thursday the weather pattern looks to be generally calm with seasonable temperatures.

Summary:
Monday: Low 40’s no expected precipitation
Tuesday: Cold, chance of snow or rain in the afternoon into the evening. Changing to rain overnight.
Wednesday: It gonna rain
Thursday: Rain in the morning, clearing out for the afternoon. Will be warmest in the morning, temperature is expected to drop throughout the day

Forecast Discussion:

As promised, I have some updates both about the weather for this weekend and the coming week.

First, regarding this evening into Monday morning:

We can expect some light to moderate rain beginning around 6 or 7PM. The rain should end before sunrise on Monday. We will then clear out with temperatures in the low 40’s on Monday.

Once the Monday event clears out, we turn our eyes towards Tuesday and beyond. If the NAM and GGEM are correct, we could be looking at 3-6 inches of snow late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, with a changeover to rain late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. I will caution that the EURO and GFS do not agree, with the Euro showing a slushy inch or two, and the GFS showing no snow at all. Needless to say there is high uncertainty at this point in time. This will be a now-cast situation.

NAM:

GFS:

Following the Tuesday night event, we can expect unsettled weather through Thursday. A low pressure system will track to the west of the region and bring rain to our area. Temperatures early Thursday could approach 60 degrees as the low pressure system begins to pull away from the region. There is no reason to believe that this system will bring any snow to the area.

Here’s a quick afternoon update:

Models have trended towards all rain for both storms. The Nam is now showing the Monday event as being warmer and the GFS has it South of the region. For the storm in the middle of next week, it’s looking like a rainstorm with no snow at all.

I’ll post updates over the weekend if anything significant changes.

As of this morning, the storm system set to come through the area on Sunday into Monday is beginning to look more interesting. While we are far from model consensus, some of the short range models are beginning to show more snow coming into the area. As of now it looks like we will start with light to moderate rain on Sunday night, and according to the NAM and SREFs this will then change to snow overnight. Accumulations if the NAM and SREF are correct look to be in the 2-4 inch range. As of now, there is still significant uncertainty if it will change to snow.

For the near term, we can expect some light snow/rain showers later this evening, without any accumulation.Temperatures generally will be in the upper 20’s/lower 30’s overnight and upper 30’s/lower 40’s during the day.

In regards to the storm later in the week, I am holding off on any updates until later today. The models are all over the map and have not come to any consensus at this time.

NAM

Looking at the upcoming modeling it looks like the next few days will be relatively calm. There is a chance of some light snow flurries Friday night into early Saturday morning. Based on current modeling, this will be no more than mood flakes

Moving forward, the weekend looks relatively dry with only a chance of some scattered light rain. Early next week is when things begin to get interesting. First, models are showing a clipper move through the area Monday morning with some light rain.

Once the Monday event passes, we get to the big question mark for the Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday time period. For this period, all the models are showing a storm signal. However, they are not in agreement as to what this will mean for us on Long Island. Currently there are two camps, one showing the storm moving inland and giving us an all rain event. However, the Euro and to some extent the UKMET are showing the storm track offshore and the strong possibility of a snow storm. There is high uncertainty at this time regarding the track, and the storm will need to be watched. At this point in time, I would say 60/40 leaning towards a rain event. However, as we know things can change significantly over a week in the weather world. Stay tuned…

Euro:

GFS:

We’re in store for an interesting week of weather. Temperatures generally will vary from the 50’s to 30’s over the next several days.There is a chance of some light snow Wednesday morning as well, this is not likely to accumulate at all.

On the Horizon we have a storm threat coming up. Models are in good agreement that a storm may approach the area at the beginning of next week in the 2/22-2/24 time frame. Many details are yet to be determined on this, but certainly something to keep an eye on.

Remainder of Today:

Wednesday Morning:

Upcoming Storm: