Here is a quick update on tomorrow’s “event”:
Light snow will enter the area early Friday morning and last until late morning. Total accumulations will be a coating to an inch. Temperatures in the morning will start in the mid-upper 20’s and rise steadily throughout the day to the mid 30’s by the afternoon.
I’ll provide a full update on the weekend and the warm-up next week tomorrow. (Sneak preview: 70’s may be possible next week)
Summary:
Thursday: Highs in lower to mid 30’s. Clouds building in later in the day.
Friday: Light snow in the morning, clearing out by the afternoon. Total accumulation coating-2 inches. Highs in the mid 30’s.
Saturday: Highs in upper 30’s to low 40’s. Skies should be clear with light winds.
Sunday: Highs in upper 30’s. Generally cloudy, with a minor chance of light snow/light rain.
Discussion:
The storm for Thursday into Friday continues to trend further south. This is mostly due to the low becoming stronger than previously forecast. What this means for our area is less snow than previously indicated. At this time, models are generally showing a coating to 2 inches for our area. With less snow as you go towards NYC, and more towards the east end. After the system passes through the region by mid-day Friday skies should begin to clear and a seasonable weekend is on tap. Looking past this weekend, most models are hinting at a significant warm up. Many are indicating that temperatures may rise into the mid-60’s with a few even showing highs approaching 70 degrees. Based on all these models, Friday is the beginning of the end for the winter of 2016. Spring appears to be coming quick!
Some of you may be wondering why I didn’t provide an update the last two days as I promised. Well the answer is that I was waiting for more model runs to come in before sharing with you information on later this week.
Before we get to that, let me give you a summary of the next few days:
Summary:
Wednesday: Rainy during the day, clearing out late. Temperatures in mid to upper 40’s
Thursday: Sunny in morning, becoming cloudy throughout the day. High’s in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.
Friday: Snow on and off throughout the day, temperatures in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. Accumulations of 1-3 inches expected as of now. See discussion below for further details
Discussion:
Wednesday looks to be a rainy day, clearing out by the end of the day. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40’s during the day. The rainfall is expected to be a nuisance more than anything. Based on current modeling it should begin in the overnight hours and be through the region by mid-day tomorrow.
Thursday looks to overall be a generally nice day with seasonable temperatures in the low 30’s. It will become progressively more cloudy throughout the day, and temperatures will begin dropping later in the day. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20’s in the evening.
Now comes the big question mark for Friday. Models have slowly come into agreement that a low pressure system will develop south of our area early Friday morning. This low pressure system is expected to stay well south of the area. However, snow is expected to develop on the northern edge and extend into our area. The big question now is how far north does the storm track. While we are not in-store for a major storm we likely will see some accumulating snow. Models as of now range for 1-3 to 3-6 inches for snowfall. In terms of timing, the snow should begin overnight Thursday into Friday and end during the day on Friday. It currently appears that it is timed perfectly to be an annoyance for the Friday morning rush, but this is subject to change as the models are still trying to lockdown exact specifics of the low’s track.
I’m not going to share information about this weekend yet, but past this weekend models are hinting at a warmup for the area. Some are showing temperatures reaching into the mid-60’s. But in weather model world, next week is light years.
Will keep you updated.
A quick update on the weather for today and tomorrow:
A beautiful late Winter Sunday is expected today. Temperatures will rise into the lower and mid 50’s on Long Island. In NYC temperatures may approach 60. Minimal to no clouds are expected as well.
Monday is expected to be similar to today, though temperatures may be a few degrees lower.
I will be posting a full week ahead outlook either later today or tomorrow(more likely tomorrow) . This will include discussion of two possible storms this week.
Last night certainly was eventful in our region. Many stations in our area reported wind gusts of 50-60 MPH leading to multiple downed trees, power lines, and damage to houses. The line of storms that came through were the strongest that our area has seen in several years. Looking forward, I do not expect anything similar to this event in the near future.
Summary:
Friday: Generally sunny, with light winds. Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30’s.
Saturday: Clear, temperatures in the upper 30’s to around 40.
Sunday: Clear, temperatures in the upper 40’s/low 50’s.
Monday: Partly Cloudy, temperatures in the 50’s possibly approaching 60
Discussion:
The weather for the next several days is expected to be calm, without any weather events of note. Temperatures are modeled to gradually increase over the next several days and the weekend should be very nice weather for this time of the year. Looking further into next week, models are showing a storm for the middle of the week. However, the storm looks to be a rain only event without any snow projected.
There is increasing likelihood of strong storms coming through our area this evening. Currently our region is under a thunderstorm watch. Many areas to our West are under thunderstorm and tornado warnings. Winds in some of the cells are exceeding 70mph.
