Author: Alex G

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1/19/24 Snow Event

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Believe it or not we’re about to have our second snow event in less than a week! After almost 2 years of no snow, we’re now having back to back events. Like our last event, this one will be relatively minor, but enough to cause some headaches.

Snow is expected to start early Friday morning between 6-9am and continue throughout the day into the evening. Snowfall rates will generally be light to moderate, but temperatures will be below freezing during the storm so the snow will not have an issue sticking. 

By the time the snow ends late Friday night a total of 2-4 inches of snow will have fallen, with less expected over Eastern Long Island. I will post a final update tomorrow night with any changes to the forecast.

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1/15/24-1/16/24 Snowfall

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first snow Memes & GIFs - ImgflipBeginning this evening and overnight, we will see our first measurable snowfall in a LONG time. The event itself will not be a major one, but it will feature the return of winter weather.

The snow will begin this evening between 8-10PM and overspread the region. Generally, snowfall will be light to moderate throughout. The snow will then end from south to north in the morning hours. Long Island MAY switch to sleet or some light rain at the end of the storm. Overall, accumulations will be in the area of 1-3 inches. 

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1/6/24-1/7/24 Event

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I’m sure by now you’ve heard the news hyping up a potential storm for this weekend. As of this afternoon and evening, most models have trended away from a significant snow event for Long Island and the city. 

The forecast is still subject to change and minor deviations to the track could place us back into a 6-10inch type of snow event. However with where the models have trended I am leaning against this possibility. 


I’ll post an update tomorrow evening or possibly earlier if there are significant changes in modeling. 

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First Snow of the Season?

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And we’re back for another winter season! As of this evening, it looks like there is a chance for our region to see the first snow of the season on Sunday evening. The good news is that I don’t think it will accumulate much if at all on Long Island. However, North and West of the city and Connecticut could see several inches of snow. 

The big wild card is how quickly the cold air pulls into the system, which right now most models are showing only enough cold making its way down for mood flakes but no accumulating snowfall.

Either way winter weather is officially here!

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1-29-22 Storm

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After a long pause due to the addition of two little nuggets to our clan and the associated exhaustion, I am back with an update for you!

As you may have have heard, we are now under a Winter Storm Watch for a potential snow storm from late Friday night through Saturday evening. What you also may have heard is that no one truly knows how much snow we can expect yet and the timing.

The main reason for this is a piece of upper air energy over Canada that is currently not well sampled, and the models are only guessing at how strong it is based on limited data. This area of energy is what will make the difference between a strong storm for our area and a minor light snow event. The NAM has the area of energy much stronger, driving in to the trough and strengthening the system while the GFS has it much weaker, and holding back not interacting with our storm. Below, you can see the impact this different handling of the energy is having on the models. We likely won’t know much more until later this afternoon or evening as the energy becomes better sampled.

The key takeaway for now is that we currently should expect a 6-12 inch snowstorm, but I would only put this forecast at 60% confidence as of now. The other 40% is split on either side of more or less snow, all depending on the energy in Canada. This is a thread the needle situation, that may not be fully settled for another 24 hours.

 

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Super Bowl Storm Update

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With the storm on our doorstep I wanted to provide a quick update: Trends over the last 24hrs have been towards less snow for our area. Instead of the storm beginning as snow, we are likely to see some light rain and with a changeover to snow later this morning. Snow will end by early evening. Totals will generally be 2-5” with slightly more towards the East End. Overall this will prove to be a low impact event for the region.

Moving forward I am keeping my eye on several threats for the coming week and beyond. More on that later today or tomorrow.