As many have pointed out, I have not posted any updates in awhile. Why you ask? Well simply, there has not been much to discuss as it relates to weather in our region. We continue to transition from Summer->Fall->Winter. This year, the transition has been fairly steady, unlike recent years where we have seen wild swings in weather. Moving forward it looks like much of the same with seasonable weather and no major events on the horizon. As we continue to transition to winter, I will provide updates as impactful events approach.
A note about these winter outlooks and forecasts you may see: Take them with a grain of salt at best. While many skilled forecasters try to project the coming winter, they are only making educated guesses. I do not wish to take anything away from them, but the reality is that we won’t know much about the winter pattern until December at the earliest. Last winter, the pattern didn’t come into focus until January.
Our region is now under a Tropical Storm Warning. The track continues to be uncertain. The latest NAM run brought tropical storm force winds into our region, and some rain squalls.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward and eastward
from Sandy Hook, New Jersey, to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island,
including Long Island, Long Island Sound, and New York City.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Watch Hill, Rhode
Island, to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Block Island,
Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to west of Watch Hill
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward
* Delaware Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite imagery indicates that Hermine has lost tropical
characteristics, and is now a post-tropical cyclone. At 1100 AM EDT
(1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located
just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks near latitude 36.1
North, longitude 75.2 West. Hermine is moving toward the east-
northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a
decrease in forward speed are expected by tonight, followed by a
slow northward motion through early Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Hermine will move away from the North Carolina coast
and meander offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula Sunday night and
early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours,
and Hermine is expected to be near hurricane intensity on Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service station at the Duck Pier
in North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (94
km/h) and a wind gust of 73 mph (117 km/h). Elizabeth City, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and
a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
Summary: Models continue to show Hermine tracking up the coast in the vicinity of our region. The good news is that they are starting to cluster around a track off shore of our area. What this means for us is less rain and wind for Sunday and Monday. However, it will still be windy with wind gusts over 40mph. I will caution that this is still subject to change. A track 100 miles further West, would mean tropical storm conditions for our area.
Discussion:
As of this morning the center of Hermine is off the Coast of Virgina and heading Northeast at about 20mph. Hermine will continue on this general track through Monday, slowing down as it comes up the coast. It is expected that by late Sunday or early Monday Hermine will make its closest approach to our area and possibly stall out. As of now models are trending away from the tucked in strong solution that I was discussing yesterday. However, this does not mean that we’ll have nice weather on Sunday and Monday. Windy conditions with occasional rain should be expected over the next two days and possibly more depending on where Hermine tracks. I do need to mention that any track closer to the coast would mean more significant rains and wind. While the chances of this track have decreased, it still is possible that the storm could shift further North and West as it comes up the coast.
For those close to the shores, there is still a significant coastal flooding risk. While Hermine is tracking further out to sea, the storm will still be pushing pushing water against the shore for an extended period of time. This will likely lead to moderate coastal flooding along the lines of a strong NorEaster. You should be making appropriate plans to prepare for this potential flooding risk.
Summary: Hermine continues to pose a threat to our region in the Sunday to Monday timeframe. As of now, at minimum we can expect windy conditions with rain showers. Depending on track, these winds could exceed 50-60mph with heavy rain. Significant uncertainty remains.
Discussions:
As of this afternoon, Hermine continues to make its way across the deep south on its way up the East Coast. Modeling continues to indicate that Hermine will strengthen once it is back over open water. This is about where the model agreement ends.
Some models are showing Hermine re-strengthening to a weak Hurricane while others show Hermine becoming a Tropical Storm. Additionally, the potential track of Hermine continues to be vary. Some models (NAM/GFS) only bring Hermine up as north as Southern Jersey. While the Euro and some others bring Hermine further north to Mid Jersey. Needless to say, the forecast is complicated at best.
What this means for our region is the difference between a breezy Sunday and Monday with some light rain or a day featuring wind gusts over 60mph with heavy rain squalls passing through. We likely won’t have any model consensus until Saturday afternoon at the earliest. No matter the track there is sure to be significant flooding along the coast, mainly in the same areas that were impacted by Sandy.
The timing of the arrival of winds, and rain is just as variable as the rest of the forecast. Some models show Sunday being a salvageable day for a barbecue. While others show both Sunday and Monday to be a washout. At this point everyone should be keeping a close eye on the forecast and depending on the model runs tonight and tomorrow, be prepared to implement storm preparation plans.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
STARTING LATE SATURDAY…TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE COULD IMPACT
THE AREA WITH EFFECTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS…AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS…ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM. AT THE LEAST…A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AS WELL AS
BEACH EROSION WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
Hurricane Hermine continues to strengthen in the Gulf before landfall in Florida. It looks like it will come ashore as a strengthening Category 1 Hurricane and more intense than most models had it. Moving forward the models continue to show Hermine tracking up the coast over the next several days. However, as I mentioned this afternoon they are still not locked in on a specific solution. As of now our region is still in the potential path of Hermine, but we are still a day or two away from knowing the true impact Hermine might have on our area. Stay tuned for further updates.
