Models this evening continue to hold steady in regards to the expected snowfall. The NAM shows our area receiving anywhere from 8-12″ of snow, and the latest run of the RGEM shows some areas receiving over a foot of snow. For now I am holding steady with a forecast of 6-12″ throughout the area. I’ll post more localized specifics tomorrow once we’re closer to the start time. In terms of timing, the snow will begin before sunrise on Thursday, with the heaviest snow falling from 6am on. The snow should taper off from West to East by the mid-afternoon.
For all those looking for a significant to major snowstorm for our area, it looks like you’re getting your wish. This mornings and early afternoons models are in and they ALL trended stronger. There is still plenty of room for the storm to trend stronger as well. Remember when I mentioned the pieces of energy being outside of good data sampling and how that could have an impact? Well that is coming to fruition, as the pieces of energy are being better sampled the models are now shifting, and I don’t think those shifts are done yet.
What does all this mean? It means that we’re safely in the window for a 6-12″ snow storm, with the potential to possibly go higher (which I’d put at 40-50% right now). The storm will start as some light rain early Thursday morning and switch over to snow before sunrise. The storm will continue until mid-day Thursday. While it will not be super long duration, while it is snowing we may see snowfall rates in excess of 2-3″ an hour, which would certainly cause whiteout conditions.
Below is the latest map from the EURO. The Euro is at the top end of the guidance window for snowfall, but it seems reasonable based on the trends of this morning and afternoon.
NAM from this morning which has been trending stronger as well:
Quick morning update: All guidance trended stronger with the storm overnight. The storm still looks to start early Thursday morning and continue throughout the day. If current guidance holds we’ll be well inside the 5-6inch plus range. More detailed updates to come later today.
There is the potential for a significant snowstorm to impact the region on Thursday this week. There is still significant disagreement between models on exactly how much snow to expect. However, at this time the lowest amounts to expect are somewhere around 2-3″. The upper end could be 8-9″. At this time my very EARLY and preliminary guess is 3-6″ region wide. As of now models are showing precipitation overspreading the region early on Thursday morning, likely in the form of rain for much of the area. However, the rain will quickly change over to snow before sunrise and continue until the early afternoon (Yes teachers, this has the chance for a snow day).
Check back later tonight or tomorrow for further updates. This is one of those system where we will not know all the details until close to the start time, since the pieces of energy involved are diving down from Canada and coming in off the Pacific coast. Subtle changes to these pieces of energy could have a significant impact on the storm.
Below is the initial first guess from the NWS. Once we’re closer in, I’ll share snow maps as well.
Beginning later tonight through Tuesday morning, our area will be impacted by a strong Nor’Easter. Winds will begin to pickup later this afternoon into tonight. Additionally, there may be some light rain in the area this afternoon and tonight. By tomorrow morning winds will be gusting over 30-40mph. The core of the storm will impact the area later tomorrow afternoon through early Tuesday morning. During this time, we can expect to see sustained winds over 50 mph, with wind gusting over 60mph. It is possible that within strong thunderstorm cells (yes thunderstorms) that winds may gust over 70mph or more. Below you will see on the maps that winds just above the surface will be over 70mph during the height of the storm. In regards to rain, we can expect somewhere between 1-2inches of rain, and possibly more if a strong thunderstorm passes over your area.
Overall, this is shaping up to be the strongest Nor’easter that the region has seen in a long time and has the potential to cause significant property damage and power outages.
Note that 925MB is about 2,000 feet above the surface
Models this morning have trended slightly North with precipitation related to a wave of low pressure passing South of the area. What this means for us is a chance of some light snow after 4PM today. By the time the low moves out late tonight, we could have a coating to an inch on the ground.
