As promised, I am back with a more detailed forecast and discussion:
As of this evening, models are showing a moderate winter storm impacting our area starting late tomorrow night. This represents a significant change from last night when I was strongly leaning towards no storm. These changes are driven by the changing interaction of several pieces of energy out west and in Canada. All of which has led to a more impactful storm for our region.
Depending on the model, precipitation will overspread the region between 5 and 9PM tomorrow evening. This first round of precipitation will be in the form of light rain, sleet, and some snow. This first round of mixed precipitation will continue overnight and may lead to accumulation of sleet overnight (worst scenario is 1-2″ of sleet). Precipitation will then let up before sunrise and re-intensify later in the morning as all snow. By the time the storm ends on Wednesday evening, total snowfall will generally be in the 4-8″ range, with slightly more on the South Shore.
The below snow maps illustrate the variability in expected snowfall for this event. It’s likely that we won’t know exactly when the changeover and heavier snow will be until tomorrow afternoon:
