I’ve been asked by many for an update so here it is:
The reality is at this point, there is still significant disagreement amongst the models and I can’t say with certainty how much to expect. As I said yesterday, the low is just forming and all the players are finally coming together. The dynamics involved are highly complex, and slight differences in model interpretations are leading to huge differences on the outcomes. The NAM currently is showing an area wide snowfall of 8″+ (This includes NYC), the GFS is right around my first call last night with only a slight bump up on Long Island, the CMC is lost, the RGEM is going back and forth between the NAM totals and the GFS. Needless to say it’s very hard to give a definitive snowfall amount as of now. The confusion is so great that the NWS is actually sending up Hurricane Hunter planes this afternoon to get readings over the ocean due to all this uncertainty. This all is very similar to our surprise big snow storm two years ago, when we went from a 2-4″ storm to over a foot with only 8-12 hours notice. For now, I’m sticking with my first call from last night, but it’s subject to significant change. I’ll keep you posted.