Today has been a wild day in storm tracking. We went from the totals exceeding 12-16″ on models for our region this weekend to some models this morning showing only 2-4″ this morning. It all comes down to just how far north the low pressure system tracks tomorrow evening in to Thursday. A shift of 25-50 miles means the difference between Long Island seeing 4-8″ of snow and seeing 6-12″+ of snow. As of this evening I am leaning towards the 4-8″ camp of models based on climatology and modeled evolution of the low pressure system. However, today has shown this is subject to significant change tomorrow morning and afternoon.
Timing of the system arriving remains the same with snow overspreading our region by late afternoon and early evening tomorrow. It is still expected that we will see heavy snowfall rates over-night potentially exceeding two inches an hour. The biggest area of uncertainty comes overnight where some models are tracking the low close to the south shore of Long Island, leading to Long Island and possibly NYC to change over to sleet and/or rain for a few hours. Afterwards a second band of light snow is expected, and this may lead to a few more inches of accumulation.
Forecast Totals:
Suffolk: 3-6″
Nassau: 4-8″
Queens and Brooklyn: 6-10″
Areas north and west of NYC: 8-14″
Overall this will be an impactful system that will disrupt Thursday mornings commute. Even if we are on the low end of the snowfall forecast, the snow itself will be heavy and hard to clear due to the potential sleet and rain mixed in.
I am holding back on posting further snow-maps this evening as they are truly all over the place, and not indictive of what to expect tomorrow and Thursday.