This GIF says it all for how I’m feeling right now, and how I bet all weather forecasters are feeling…This is by far the most difficult forecast in a LONG time.
As of this afternoon, we’re experiencing model mayhem…Essentially what is going on is that several models have started to trend subtly West with the upper level low pressures (NAM, RGEM, RPM), while others have held the course (EURO, UKIE, 3K NAM). What this means is that there is significant uncertainty at this time in regards to the total snowfall to expect tomorrow.
Here are my thoughts at the moment, and subject to wild change (This is a very low confidence forecast):
Eastern Suffolk: 0-6 inches
Western Suffolk: 6-12 inches
Nassau: 10-15 inches
Queens: 12-18 inches
Brooklyn and Manhattan: 12-20 inches
For all the above, shave off a few inches or more along the South shore, especially in Suffolk.
In terms of timing, snow will start overnight sometime after midnight. Depending on the model snow COULD end as early as 7-9am or continue through mid-day. The other significant part of this storm will be the wind. All the models are showing wind gusts exceeding 40-50mph. This will create whiteout conditions during the heavy snowfall and have the potential to cause power outages as well.