As of this morning, models continue to come into agreement in terms of the track of the Pi Day Storm. We are still a ways off from locking in totals, but it is becoming clear that in general we can expect a 12-18″ snowfall area wide. However, there are a few models showing us going over 18″ and approaching the 20-24″ range. Two keys and wildcards amongst many variables are:
1. The track of the low. How far East or West does it end up tracking?
2. Do the low pressures centers do something called closing off? Some models are beginning to show them close off, which would mean a slower and stronger storm. It’s possible we may not know this until tomorrow or possibly while the storm is under way. This requires close watching.
Overall, temperatures will remain cold through Tuesday. We can expect snow to begin sometime late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Depending on the factors I mentioned above snow may not end until late Tuesday night. The hope is that by either tonight or tomorrow the models will agree on the track and the closing off of lows. If not, we will be in a true nowcast situation.
