I’m going to cut right to the chase, and say: Winter is returning
As of this afternoon, all of the major global models have a significant storm impacting our region starting on Sunday. The timing of the start of the storm varies across models from Mid-Late Sunday Morning on the GFS to later in the day on the UKIE/EURO. The timing will have a significant impact on how much snow sticks, and how it will impact Monday for work and school. If verification scores and statistics are what you want to go by the EURO and UKIE should be the models that you focus on.
Currently, the EURO and UKIE have the storm tracking up the coast late Sunday into Monday, and dropping 6″+ of snow on the area, with more to the West and less to the East. The latest EURO model runs are hinting at a chance of mixing from Central Long Island and East. The GFS is showing no mixing, but a slightly weaker low tracking out to sea. The GFS only gives the area about 4″ of snow.
If I had to guess a snow total, and it’s still too soon for this to be accurate, I’d say anywhere from 4-8″ is a reasonable expectation. This is highly likely to change in the next few days as the models get a better grasp of all the features involved and the short range models come into range to show exactly where the freezing line sets up in the upper atmosphere. Stay tuned…
GFS:
EURO:
Snow day????????